I will admit to having some nontrivial differences with the current Vice President. He's a bright fellow, but I think he's a bit more ethically flexible than is helpful in a republic. If you can intellectually justify going from "he may become the American Hitler" to "Yes sir, whatever you say, sir," it is conceivable that your moral core needs a little toning.
Still and all, a peaceful resolution of the war with Iran is a desirable goal, and James David Vance is both an intelligent fellow and was the one doing the talking. I got myself to thinking, as I asked the Creator of the Universe to give him success: what would the optimal outcome look like?
What would the successful outcome we could most reasonably anticipate look like? Golly, let's go further. Let's stretch it out to a wildly improbable hope, something that seems so positive it borders on miraculous. I mean, this is the Lord God we're asking, so ask big, right?
So here's what I prayed J.D. would have announced at the end of the negotiations in Pakistan:
- The Iranians have agreed to fully open the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic, with no tolls or coercion.
- We have secured, through our negotiations, a clear and verifiable commitment from Iran that they will never develop nuclear weapons;
- For verification, following secret behind-the-scenes negotiation, we have secured the broad support of the international community in enforcing that weapons ban, including the commitment of three of our former European allies and the International Atomic Energy Commission.
- Additionally, we've secured the support of both Russian and China, who've been persuaded to sing on to help ensure a non-nuclear Iran, and to honor the terms of this agreement.
- In exchange and in return, we give our solemn promise to lift all sanctions on Iran, commit to ending violence between us, and give them a path to return to the community of nations.
War? Ended. International commerce, restored. Iran's nuclear program, capped. Iran's stockpile of uranium, constrained. Trained inspectors? On the ground. Add in the support of allies, and the agreement of Russia? And China?
This would constitute a wild and triumphant success, the sort of success that silences all but the most intractable loudmouthed internet conflict entrepreneurs. Vance would be praised as a peacemaker par excellence, and possibly a shoo-in for that Nobel Peace Prize thing.
So I offered up my small church pastor prayer to the Lord.
And then a still small and slightly annoyed voice reminded me it knew exactly what I was asking. "You're just asking for the restoration of the JCPOA," it whispered.
Nothing gets by the Lord. The still small voice was right, of course, as always.
Ten years ago, this is what America had already negotiated. Beginning in 2013, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took 20 months of intense negotiations by teams of American diplomats, but by 2016, we'd secured all of these things. We'd agreed to those terms, gotten the support of the international community, and pledged to honor that agreement as a nation.
In 2018, President Donald John Trump unilaterally broke that pledge. He withdrew America from the international agreement we ourselves had negotiated, insisting that it was "defective" and that he could do so much better.
Ten years later, this war is what Donald J. Trump's "better" looks like.
There's a direct and causal through-line between Trump's ego-driven decision a decade ago and the bombs and missiles we're raining down on Iran. He opened the path for the arrival of the particular blighted present we now inhabit.
But what if, I whispered in the silence of my heart, J.D. just pledged to resign that agreement, only now we'd change the name of the JCPOA to the Donald Trump Should Get the Nobel Prize Plan for the Best Possible Peace (DTSGTNPPFTBPP)? You know, like Trump scrapped NAFTA, and then "negotiated" basically the same thing, renaming it and claiming it as a win for him?
Lord, I offered up, you know the DTSGTNPPFTBPP would pain me mightily, but it would be worth the cost in human lives and suffering.
Evidently, given the collapse of the talks after 48 hours, that was not to be. J.D. couldn't pull off that miracle. I felt genuine sorrow when I read that the talks had swiftly decoalesced into a miasma of distrust and recrimination.
Sometimes the Lord says no to our prayers for peace. Particularly if we've already chosen, as a people, to follow those who turn their backs on that path.
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