For lefty-types, it's because the campaign was too moderate. For moderates, it's because the campaign was too left-wing. For MAGAs, it's because Trump is Jesus and can do no wrong and always wins no matter what because God!
Having tracked the polling, day by day, for most of the last six months, there seemed to be two inflection points of most significance.
The first came following Biden's disastrous debate, and with Harris entering the race. That was, understandably, a game changer, as the whole game changed. For a while afterwards, the metapolling had stabilized, with Harris consistently up around the three point margin necessary for a potential Democratic victory, both in the popular vote and in the electoral college.
But that stability shifted in the month prior to the election, and the trendlines shifted. By the time we reached election day, metapolling showed Harris significantly underperforming Clinton's 2016 final polls, which...by my own gut metrics...meant a more substantial loss.
As best I can tell, one particular event rested at the inflection point where things began to notably shift: the entry of Elon Musk into the race.
Note, I'm not saying: Elon Musk's endorsement. He didn't just endorse someone in the race. That endorsement dropped back in July, before the Republican convention. During the last month of the campaign, Musk entered the race.
Musk pushed Trump hard, inserting himself into the campaign in a way that was unprecedented in my memory.
It's not just that Musk's X began to aggressively pitch pro-Trump content, and used algorithms to tamp down other voices. It wasn't just Musk pouring millions into the campaign. It's the weight and presence of Musk's entire sprawling business empire. Progs and leftys like to snark at his business achievements, and I'd be the first to note that there's a major hype factor in everything he does, but...still.
Musk isn't just a celebrity. He is, very visibly, the richest man in the world, and wealth in our culture is a both a mark of success and a social proxy for power. Musk says, as the richest man in the world: I'm with Trump.
And then, with that still in the public consciousness, in front of all our eyeballs comes SpaceX catching a booster in midair. Kvetch and quibble all you want, but it was an undeniably impressive feat of engineering. Into the subconscious of Americans, goggling in awe at the rocket's red glare, came the thought: he's with Trump.
Then there's a robotics event, filled with droids and self-driving cars and robotfuturebuses. As the hype machine interfaced with the inevitable hot-take resistance, into the subconscious of all Americans came the thought: he's with Trump.
Then you're driving, and you see a Tesla, and another Tesla, and another Tesla. In my neighborhood, the most common car to arrive with a temporary tag lately: the Tesla Model Y. There's one two houses down. There's one four houses up. Another one across the street from that. That's not even counting the derpy but utterly distinctive Cybertruck, which catches the eye and reminds you, when you look at its absurd proportions: he's with Trump.
Then, with his rockets and his robots and chatter about Musk's wealth all around us, every Harris ad pitched to me included a tuxedoed Elon laughing at a swanky party. The goal was to make swing voters grumble at Trump, at his pandering to the billionaire class. What I'd think, every time I saw one of those ads, was that Democrats were reminding the average American that the most public avatar of material success, wealth, and power? he was with Trump.
I don't share our cultural assumptions about the merit of wealth, given how my Teacher challenged and rejected that very principle among his own people. But I'm not everyone, and while I know that all that glitters is not gold, it's a very human mistake to make.
We do love our Mammon.